Pair #9153

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-ASCO

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Adam Scott finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1438

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-ASCO

Will Adam Scott win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 681518

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: finish-position markets in different tournaments

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -23.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0070 + ~$0.0005 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -28.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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