Pair #915

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ZBLA

Valspar Championship: Will Zac Blair make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Zac Blair
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 689

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Zac Blair makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ZBLA

Will Zac Blair lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Zac Blair
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2383

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Zac Blair is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:12:46Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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