Pair #91

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 222934

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLDRAFT1ST-26-1-DEN

Will Denver make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft?

Series: KXNFLDRAFT1ST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4968

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver is the team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:10Z

Reasoning: Winning the AFC Championship and having the 1st overall draft pick are unrelated outcomes. The 1st overall pick goes to the worst team in the prior season, not the AFC champion. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 12.78% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9200
Days to maturity: 253
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +8.50% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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