Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN
Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 222934
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-26-1-DEN
Will Denver make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft?
Series: KXNFLDRAFT1ST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4968
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Denver is the team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:10Z
Reasoning: Winning the AFC Championship and having the 1st overall draft pick are unrelated outcomes. The 1st overall pick goes to the worst team in the prior season, not the AFC champion. No implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
12.78%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9200
Days to maturity:
253
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
+8.50%
PROFITABLE