Pair #9096

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-LABE

The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8544

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE

The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3544

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3700 + ~$0.0299 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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