Pair #9095

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 62213

YES ask: 0.0210
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0210

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-LABE

The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8544

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3600 + ~$0.0170 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.13% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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