Pair #9084

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SBUR

The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5260

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-SBUR

The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7689

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500 + ~$0.0244 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.39% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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