Pair #9048

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MFIT

The Open Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 20136

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MFIT

The Open Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 34745

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.4800
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700 + ~$0.0336 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -101.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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