Pair #9043

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 187699

YES ask: 0.0450
NO ask: 0.9580
Last: 0.0450

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2453329

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -83.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0780 + ~$0.0102 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -87.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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