Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN
Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 222934
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN
Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?
Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29426
YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:50Z
Reasoning: In the NFL, a team can win the AFC Championship without winning their division (wild card teams can advance through the playoffs to win the conference). And winning the AFC West division does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-25.03%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.2200
Days to maturity:
252
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
-29.31%
BELOW HURDLE