Pair #90

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 222934

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29426

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:50Z

Reasoning: In the NFL, a team can win the AFC Championship without winning their division (wild card teams can advance through the playoffs to win the conference). And winning the AFC West division does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -25.03% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: 252
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -29.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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