Pair #8994

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-VHOV

The Open Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11900

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-VHOV

The Open Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8388

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -93.11% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0210 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -97.34% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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