Pair #8991

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-VHOV

The Open Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8388

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-VHOV

The Open Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 28243

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600 + ~$0.0296 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -101.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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