Pair #8989

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-CGOT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22026

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-CGOT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 33585

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200 + ~$0.0141 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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