Pair #8971

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 47626

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-CGOT

The Open Championship: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7759

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -91.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1140 + ~$0.0090 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -95.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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