Pair #8970

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 47626

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1410131

YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0250

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -22.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0090 + ~$0.0028 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -26.51% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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