Pair #8950

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-TKIM

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tom Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10760

YES ask: 0.7900
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-TKIM

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tom Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22534

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.4800
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2400 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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