Pair #8939

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5648

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11293

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -93.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0179 est. fees
Days to maturity: 16
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -97.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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