Pair #8937

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-JTHO

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3304

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-JTHO

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16685

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3300 + ~$0.0155 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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