Pair #8928

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-JTHO

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16685

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1233900

YES ask: 0.0130
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0130

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: finish-position markets in different tournaments

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -39.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0130 + ~$0.0009 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -43.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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