Pair #8927

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-JTHO

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Justin Thomas finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1442

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1233900

YES ask: 0.0130
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0130

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: finish-position markets in different tournaments

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -39.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0130 + ~$0.0009 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -43.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue