Pair #8919

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4205

YES ask: 0.0140
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JTHO

The Open Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2076

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -85.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0870 + ~$0.0072 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -89.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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