Pair #8917

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 29704

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9910
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 742502

YES ask: 0.0130
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0130

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -11.15% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0040 + ~$0.0015 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -15.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue