Pair #8915

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-MLEE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3602

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-MLEE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5224

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4800 + ~$0.0189 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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