Pair #887

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-DFOR

Valspar Championship: Will David Ford finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: David Ford
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13240

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Ford finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-DFOR

Valspar Championship: Will David Ford make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: David Ford
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 488

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Ford makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:50Z

Reasoning: To finish top 5, a player must have made the cut and completed all rounds. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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