Pair #8855

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-TFLE

The Open Championship: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7340

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-TFLE

The Open Championship: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 20606

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000 + ~$0.0333 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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