Pair #884

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-DFOR

Valspar Championship: Will David Ford make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: David Ford
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 488

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If David Ford makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-DFOR

Will David Ford lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: David Ford
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15085

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If David Ford is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:50Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2 and miss the cut), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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