Pair #8824

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-JRAH

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8890

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

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Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 774059

YES ask: 0.0390
NO ask: 0.9620
Last: 0.0390

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: finish-position markets in different tournaments

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -77.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0390 + ~$0.0026 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -81.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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