Pair #881

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DFOR

Valspar Championship: Will David Ford finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: David Ford
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4997

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Ford finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DFOR

Valspar Championship: Will David Ford finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: David Ford
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7976

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Ford finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:50Z

Reasoning: If David Ford finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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