Pair #880

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DFOR

Valspar Championship: Will David Ford finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: David Ford
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7976

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Ford finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-DFOR

Valspar Championship: Will David Ford make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: David Ford
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 488

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Ford makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:50Z

Reasoning: To finish top 20 in the tournament, a player must have made the cut and completed all rounds. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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