Pair #88

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26ABROWN-DEN

What will be A.J. Brown's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 26664

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If A.J. Brown's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 273838

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:50Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Whether A.J. Brown signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -21.48% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0057 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -25.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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