Pair #88

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26ABROWN-DEN

What will be A.J. Brown's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 26664

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If A.J. Brown's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 222934

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:50Z

Reasoning: Whether A.J. Brown signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.23% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: 184
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -21.51% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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