Pair #8797

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1411

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 80378

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2800 + ~$0.0255 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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