Pair #8787

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1131

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8502

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200 + ~$0.0215 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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