Pair #8781

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1827

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8502

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300 + ~$0.0260 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -98.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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