Pair #8768

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-FMOL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Francesco Molinari finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 782

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-FMOL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Francesco Molinari finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3064

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6100 + ~$0.0167 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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