Pair #8764

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-FMOL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Francesco Molinari finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 782

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-FMOL

Will Francesco Molinari win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Francesco Molinari
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 301469

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules If Francesco Molinari wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: finish-position markets in different tournaments

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -7.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0020 + ~$0.0001 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -11.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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