Pair #8760

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-MAST26-JOLA

Will Jose Maria Olazabal lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Jose Maria Olazabal
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 710

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jose Maria Olazabal is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JOLA

The Masters: Will Jose Maria Olazabal make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jose Maria Olazabal
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 145596

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jose Maria Olazabal has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:42:47Z

Reasoning: If Olazabal leads at the end of Round 2, he has completed Round 2 and is still in the tournament, meaning he has made the cut (or at minimum is guaranteed to make it as the leader). The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not imply leading after Round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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