Pair #876

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Matti Schmid make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 429

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matti Schmid makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Matti Schmid finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1149

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matti Schmid finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:33Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 implies making the cut (not the other way around stated here as antecedent). Actually top 10 → made cut is true, but that direction means KXPGATOP10 implies KXPGAMAKECUT, not the reverse. Neither A→B nor B→A holds as stated: making the cut doesn't imply top 10, but top 10 does imply making the cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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