Pair #8759

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MIW

The Masters: Will Mike Weir finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Mike Weir
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1086

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mike Weir finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-MWEI

The Masters: Will Mike Weir make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Mike Weir
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 7850

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mike Weir has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:42:47Z

Reasoning: If Mike Weir finishes in the top 20, he must have made the cut — you cannot finish in the top 20 of a tournament without having survived the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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