Pair #8734

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-MPUL

The Masters: Will Mateo Pulcini finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Mateo Pulcini
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1053

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mateo Pulcini finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-MPUL

The Masters: Will Mateo Pulcini make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Mateo Pulcini
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 22123

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mateo Pulcini has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:42:19Z

Reasoning: If Pulcini finishes top 5, he must have made the cut to complete all four rounds. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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