Pair #8722

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-MMCC

The Masters: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 411

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew McCarty finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-MMCC

The Masters: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 13342

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew McCarty finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:41:56Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 could be positions 6-10, which is not top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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