Pair #872

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-MSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Matti Schmid finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 488

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matti Schmid finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Matti Schmid make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 429

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matti Schmid makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:33Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 requires completing all rounds, which means making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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