Pair #8716

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-MMCC

The Masters: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 13342

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew McCarty finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MMCC

The Masters: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 27571

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew McCarty finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:41:37Z

Reasoning: If McCarty finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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