Pair #8692

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JKNA

Will Jake Knapp lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jake Knapp
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 267467

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9850
Last: 0.0170

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jake Knapp is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JKNA

The Masters: Will Jake Knapp finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Jake Knapp
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1092

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jake Knapp finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:40:57Z

Reasoning: If Jake Knapp leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top position, which means he is in the top 5. However, being top 5 in Round 1 does not require being the outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0850
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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