KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-MSCH
Will Matti Schmid lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20310
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MSCH
Valspar Championship: Will Matti Schmid make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 429
YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.4200
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:33Z
Reasoning: If Schmid leads after Round 1, he has completed Round 1 and will play Round 2; the cut is made after Round 2, but a Round 1 leader is virtually certain to make the cut. However, strictly speaking, leading after R1 does not logically guarantee making the cut (a player could withdraw before R2 or have an extraordinary R2 collapse — though cuts are based on score not withdrawal). Actually, a player who leads after R1 could still miss the cut after R2. This is not a logical necessity.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.4200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A
Not yet reviewed.
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