Pair #8676

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-NKAT

Will Naoyuki Kataoka win the The Masters?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Naoyuki Kataoka
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 119673

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naoyuki Kataoka wins the The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-NKAT

Will Naoyuki Kataoka finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Naoyuki Kataoka
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 1192

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naoyuki Kataoka records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:40:38Z

Reasoning: If Kataoka wins the Masters outright, he has the lowest total strokes in the entire field, which necessarily means he also has the lowest total strokes among any Asian/Oceanic subset of that field. The reverse does not hold — he could be the top Asian/Oceanic golfer without winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue