Pair #8666

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-BHOL

Will Brandon Holtz lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brandon Holtz
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 36262

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brandon Holtz is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-BHOL

The Masters: Will Brandon Holtz finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Brandon Holtz
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 654

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brandon Holtz finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:40:18Z

Reasoning: If Holtz leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 5 (the leader is the top finisher, which is within top 5). However, finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not require being the outright leader — he could be tied or second through fifth.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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