Pair #8661

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-BHOL

The Masters: Will Brandon Holtz finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brandon Holtz
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 5255

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brandon Holtz finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-BHOL

The Masters: Will Brandon Holtz make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brandon Holtz
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 43062

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brandon Holtz has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:40:18Z

Reasoning: If Holtz finishes in the top 10 of the overall tournament, he must have made the cut to play all four rounds and achieve that finish. Making the cut does not imply a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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