Pair #866

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Matti Schmid finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1149

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matti Schmid finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Matti Schmid finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5829

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matti Schmid finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:33Z

Reasoning: Top 10 is a subset of top 20, so finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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