Pair #8658

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-BHOL

Will Brandon Holtz win the The Masters?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brandon Holtz
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 371506

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brandon Holtz wins the The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-BHOL

The Masters: Will Brandon Holtz make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brandon Holtz
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 43062

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brandon Holtz has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:39:58Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters requires completing all four rounds, which means the player must have made the cut. Therefore winning logically necessitates making the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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