Pair #8655

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-BHOL

The Masters: Will Brandon Holtz finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brandon Holtz
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 22898

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brandon Holtz finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-BHOL

The Masters: Will Brandon Holtz make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brandon Holtz
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 43062

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brandon Holtz has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:39:58Z

Reasoning: To finish in the top 20 of the overall tournament, a player must make the cut and complete all four rounds. Therefore finishing top 20 logically necessitates having made the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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