Pair #865

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Matti Schmid finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5829

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matti Schmid finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Matti Schmid make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 429

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matti Schmid makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:33Z

Reasoning: If Schmid finishes top 20, he must have made the cut to play the weekend rounds and achieve that finish. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue